Post by Vampyre on Jun 6, 2012 8:24:12 GMT -5
The only part that may prove problematic is 'must be traded from a non-playoff team to a team that is all but guaranteed to make the playoffs'.
This is a little subjective and difficult to set a hard line on.
Let's use our current standings to illustrate:
Canadian Conference
Teams currently ranked 1 thru 5 are at least 10 pts ahead of the closest non-playoff team.
Teams currently ranked 6 thru 8 appear to be within striking distance (even if its a remote chance) of the team ranked 9th; this is not actually the case though, as the team ranked 7th has played significantly less games than the rest of the teams and should be considered as ranked higher.
Teams currently ranked 10 thru 14 are pretty much playing out the string.
Looking at the Winning PCT gives a better read of the teams here:
PCT for teams likely playoff-bound = >.600
PCT for teams guaranteed to miss the playoffs = <.450
PCT for teams in limbo = .450 - .600
This would leave 6 possible 'buyers', 4 possible 'sellers' and 4 'not invited to the dance'.
Applying the same method to the American Conference would result in:
6 possible 'buyers', 2 possible 'sellers' and 6 in limbo.
Total NHA = 12 possible 'buyers', 6 possible 'sellers', 10 excluded
If the 'miss-the-playoff' PCT is increased to under .500, then the following results:
Total = 12 possible 'buyers', 10 possible 'sellers', 6 excluded
It might also be possible to limit the buyers more, to better simulate a 'short-list' of NTC destinations. Raising the 'guaranteed playoff-bound' PCT to >.620 results in:
Total = 7 possible 'buyers', 10 possible 'sellers', 11 excluded
This is a little subjective and difficult to set a hard line on.
Let's use our current standings to illustrate:
Canadian Conference
Teams currently ranked 1 thru 5 are at least 10 pts ahead of the closest non-playoff team.
Teams currently ranked 6 thru 8 appear to be within striking distance (even if its a remote chance) of the team ranked 9th; this is not actually the case though, as the team ranked 7th has played significantly less games than the rest of the teams and should be considered as ranked higher.
Teams currently ranked 10 thru 14 are pretty much playing out the string.
Looking at the Winning PCT gives a better read of the teams here:
PCT for teams likely playoff-bound = >.600
PCT for teams guaranteed to miss the playoffs = <.450
PCT for teams in limbo = .450 - .600
This would leave 6 possible 'buyers', 4 possible 'sellers' and 4 'not invited to the dance'.
Applying the same method to the American Conference would result in:
6 possible 'buyers', 2 possible 'sellers' and 6 in limbo.
Total NHA = 12 possible 'buyers', 6 possible 'sellers', 10 excluded
If the 'miss-the-playoff' PCT is increased to under .500, then the following results:
Total = 12 possible 'buyers', 10 possible 'sellers', 6 excluded
It might also be possible to limit the buyers more, to better simulate a 'short-list' of NTC destinations. Raising the 'guaranteed playoff-bound' PCT to >.620 results in:
Total = 7 possible 'buyers', 10 possible 'sellers', 11 excluded